Equities mostly slumped last week and were mixed for the month of November. Economic Data indicated that growth worldwide is improving. The November manufacturing PMIs were strong globally and new or updated GDP Data indicated growth is improving globally. In Japan, October Data were split with Household Spending and Retail Sales disappointing along with Industrial Production while capital spending improved. In Europe, Retail Sales in Germany and France disappointed. The Bank of Korea surprised and increased its Policy Interest Rate by 25 basis points to 1.5 %
Friday’s Employment Report will be the week’s economic focus and solid strength is the call, a return to normalcy after the disruptions of the hurricane season. This week opened with Factory Orders on Monday and another look at the Durables Economy, which all came in positive figures. But the Trade Reports on Tuesday were reason for some concern. Service sector updates, which are usually strong, were also weak. ADP on Wednesday came in strong and the last look at the Labor Market going into November’s Employment Report will be released tomorrow, Friday.
Euro edged lower against the Dollar by the close of the Wall Street Session on Wednesday, as the Dollar strengthened on optimism about progress on U.S. Tax Legislation and lawmakers’ efforts to avert a U.S. Government Shutdown on Saturday.
Britain’s Pound declined against the Dollar as Brexit deadlock fears weighed on the Sterling. Brexit negotiations can move to phase two next week only on the basis of a tentative Irish border agreement that collapsed on Monday.
The Canadian Dollar declined against the Dollar after the Bank of Canada held Interest Rates steady and showed enough caution to dampen expectations for a hike early next year.
The Australian Dollar declined as the country’s economic growth missed the forecasts for last quarter, while weakness in consumer spending underlined the case against a rise in Interest Rates for months to come.
According to reports from Haver Analytics, our expectations today include:
12:30 PM GMT Initial Jobless Claims for December 2 week Consensus Forecast: 240,000 Consensus Range: 234,000 to 245,000
Initial claims are expected to come in at 240,000 in the December 2 week vs 238,000 in the November 25 week. Data throughout this report are near historic lows and claims from Puerto Rico may now be coming down following Hurricane Maria.
Consumer Credit for October Consensus Forecast: $17.0 billion Consensus Range: $16.0 to $19.5 billion
Revolving credit has been on the rise which may be a positive for the holiday shopping outlook but a negative perhaps for credit standards. After increasing a sharp $20.8 billion in September, consumer credit is expected to rise $17.0 billion in October.
Other Potential Catalysts 09:00AM GMT EuroZone GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 02:00PM GMT Canada Ivey PMI (Nov.) 03:00PM GMT ECB President Draghi Speaks 10:50PM GMT Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q3)